10:00am – thanks to KT for early map of intraday action

1:00pm update – A test of lower bounds of rising channel.  A clean 11-handle swoon to match previous downdraught.

2:03 voodoo: yes, you also added a purple moving average line to the chart
2:04 voodoo: would you mind telling me what that represents?
2:05 KT: it is the Ensign map
2:07 KT: the large red arrows on top and now the large green arrows on the bottom are yellow dog

2:10pm update – Thanks again to KT in b-line channel for providing afternoon update to AM call. 

 

Bearnake is doing his best to shovel American dollars onto foreign soil. Interesting how this is also a way to artificially lift the indicies. All things being equal, dropping dollar -1.5% should at least produce a +1.5% pop in the markets just to keep things ‘even’.

Your hard-earned dollars are being deflated as we speak. Intraday results, within one hour of the opening bell on Wall Street. Or perhaps we are seeing a flight out of the Greenback ahead of the election results?

I learned a lot about Fibonacci trading from a trader named <Brach> in ensign chat back in 2002-2004. The most informative piece of trading logic he imparted was the notion of 62% – 78% retraces – the ‘Brach Zone’. This represents the best area of opportunity for the trader to enter with well-defined risk (stops just above 78% retrace) to capture big moves in equities, futures, and foreign exchange. A good place to look for a ‘b’ wave high or low in larger a-b-c retrace context.

As far as running with the pack. a perfect wolfewave setup this morning on ES – E-mini s&p.

In the end, it is all just a zero-sum game, right? But it seems like the markets are doing soo good before the elections – all just smoke and mirrors.

Session Start: Thu Oct 23 08:12:48 2008
Session Ident: #pitstock

[11:13] good afternoon
[11:20] ES .. 872.5 -> 922.5 = +50 .. am action set up gartley pattern on a-b-c retrace .. 882.75 + 50 -> 932.75 target for full bull flag measurement .. not quite there, but a wolfewave will setup on push to target levels
[11:33] It seems the s&p500 is being whipsawed more by the major oil components than anything else .. XOM, RDS, CVX making for most of index lift due to market caps
[11:40] ES .. attempting to confirm 911 intraday spike high as support
[11:41] bears will look to 918 as a possible right shoulder .. I would prefer to anticipate possibility of a broadening triangle from these levels to 934
[11:44] ES .. small h&s on 5min .. neckline 908-910
[11:47] ES 909 .. neckline test, but also a trendline off spike lows from lift .. key juncture .. http://chart.nu/ES_intraday_20081023_hs.gif

[11:48] <– has stopped trading h&s patterns .. too often they can become continuation patterns .. very dangerous play
[11:56] ES .. the bull game .. http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-10-23/H_80.png
[11:59] not my chart, just am using it for perspective to see the ‘other side’ of trade .. 19000-vol is probably a volume-based charting approach (vs. time-cycle based)
[11:59] very similar to the way that tick charts can aggregate a certain number of trades into a single bar

[12:07] ES .. small head’s up on break of rising channel
[12:09] amazing some of the insights that charts seem to bring out .. fibonacci rings completely new to me.. http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-10-23/shawn22.png
[12:12] ES .. second 10-handle swoon 917 – 907 = -10 .. 914 spike high ‘b’ -> 904 ‘c’ wave target here
[12:14] if still riding h&s pattern, expect bounce to retest neckline at 909 levels
[12:23] ES .. next trigger at test of lower bounds off spike lows .. http://chart.nu/ES_intraday_20081023_tl.gif

[12:23] keep 892 levels on radar
[12:25] entering BZ “Brach Zone” levels of 62%-78% retrace
[12:28] small h&s .. 909 neck 923 head -> +14 .. 909 – 14 = 895 targets .. tagged
[12:33] 78% retrace 886 levels .. make-or-break
[12:39] http://chart.nu/ES_intraday_20081023_x.gif
[12:41] nite, all .. that’s it for my trading day

[13:33] NDX /naz100 is resolving symmetrical triangle on the daily chart to the downside .. it doesn’t have the benefit of an oil lift, and may be a way to view markets without the weight of bigcap refiners
[13:34] all indicies .. are rubbing the lower bounds of this continuation pattern a bit raw .. 4x knock sequence / setup
[13:35] ES .. in (yet another) bear flag a-b-c sequence / breakdown
[13:36] http://chart.nu/ES_intraday_20081023_abc.gif
[13:38] ES .. resolving daily triangle to downside .. 4x knock is openning up the basement door
[13:39] ES .. third knock to left .. trendline off spike lows from 10/10 .. KEY pattern resolution levels .. http://chart.nu/ES_intraday_20081023_4x.gif
[13:40] this is where the frog meets the boiling water
[13:43] ES .. overlapping structure on 5min visible suggesting nerve canal struck
[13:45] a wolfewave lurking in this jack-knife situation .. http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-10-23/DYoung11.png
[13:48] have found that wolfewave should be taken with almost 3-5pt stop .. the failed patterns usually lead to “upcrash” scenarios .. haven’t had a clear down crash situation (YET)
[13:53] ES .. ww setup .. http://chart.nu/ES_intraday_20081023_ww2.gif
[13:56] trigger will require wide stop .. first ww setup I am not 100% confident in based on larger timeframe technicals
[13:58] GC /gold .. monstrous wolfewave on weekly .. am giving it to 650 and looking for narrow range bar before any entry .. http://chart.nu/chart?w&m_start=9&y_start=2006&filter=8&ticker=GCZ8
[13:59] ES .. ww trigger @ 871
[14:02] basement door opening .. is this the ‘downcrash’ level?
[14:04] VIX .. a wolfwave there, too .. dunno what it really signals, however .. http:/chart.nu/chart?m_start=2&y_start=2007&filter=21&ticker=VIX
[14:05] indicies .. ALL symmetrical triangle resolving to downside here
[14:11] ww setup .. http://chart.nu/ES_intraday_20081023_ww3.gif

[14:12] wide stop required for fear of downcrash and technical levels
[14:17] gonna have to call this inflection point the “wolfetrap” .. failed pattern signal is almost as strong as a bull or bear flag
[14:18] mesasurement possibilities on pattern failure .. http://chart.nu/ES_intraday_20081023_xx.gif
[14:23] XAU /gold miners .. back to levels when gold was breaking above $300 .. HUI looks the same .. http://chart.nu/chart?m&filter=5&ticker=XAU
[14:24] Greenspan Concedes to `Flaw’ in His Market Ideology .. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ah5qh9Up4rIg&refer=home
[14:34] ES 871 .. last upswing > previous downswing
[14:44] ES .. small a-b-c bounce to test lower bounds of multi-day symmetrical .. keep lower bounds off spike lows on radar for next breakdown.. http://chart.nu/ES_intraday_20081023_wwt.gif

[14:47] not with the choppy lift we are getting, now .. was happy just for the ‘god trade’
[14:49] ES .. small h&s .. seen it once, expect it twice .. http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-10-23/midge71.png
[14:52] h&s pattern .. usually evolves from a rising / falling channel .. the break of channel sets neckline .. retrace to lower bounds of rising channel sets the right shoulder
[14:55] nice one, ADM .. fwiw, the charts I am using often come from other sources – most notably ensign’s great bunch of traders in b-line channel
[14:57] irc++
[14:59] NQ /naz eminis .. http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-10-23/Kongfuzi54.png
[15:03] e-wave .. a excellent primer, with some charts from Mary (best realtime e-wave trader I’ve met) .. http://www.ensignsoftware.com/tips/tradingtips50.htm#Application%20?
[15:03] a must-read for gartley pattern players
[15:05] small h&s target completed around 860 (10-handle)
[15:09] a-b-c retrace in progress
[15:09] ES .. target measure at 885-888 levels
[15:10] impulse on this one is up
[15:12] ‘c’ complete on tag of measured move
[15:13] impulse is UP
[15:14] ww target may even get tagged
[15:14] am not betting on it, tho
[15:16] ES .. update .. http://chart.nu/DJI_intraday_20081023_abc.gif
[15:25] ES established spike high as support on pullback .. http://charts.dacharts.com/2008-10-23/av_5000807.png
[15:27] JY /yen .. cup&handle breakout on monthly working nicely
[15:31] nite, all .. over&out .. exhausting day
[15:56] ES .. wolfe in pack .. 3rd push .. http://chart.nu/ES_intraday_20081023_3x.gif